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Capacity Glut to Trigger Refinery Closures after 2021

Hellenic Shipping News:

An excess of global refining capacity looms after 2021, according to ESAI Energy’s newly released, Global Refining Capacity Five Year Outlook. ESAI Energy projects a significant increase in new distillation capacity to 2023. After lagging demand growth in recent years, the coming capacity build cycle will significantly outpace demand. The resulting rise in spare capacity will reduce global utilization rates and put pressure on margins, particularly beyond 2021.

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Five-Year Global Fuels Outlook

OilVoice:

In its recently published Five-Year Global Fuels Outlook, ESAI Energy examines the effect of the International Marine Organization’s (IMO) 0.5 percent sulfur content cap on bunker fuels on transport fuel markets through 2023.

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Don’t Believe the Hype About the Looming Crude Shortage

Houston Chronicle:

“There is a misperception that a supply crunch is imminent,” said Sarah Emerson, an analyst at ESAI Energy. “In a five-year horizon, the potential for non-OPEC supply growth is impressive. This will have a bearing on the degree to which OPEC will have to dip into spare capacity to offset disruptions.”

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Crude Oil Outlook Shows Ample Supplies

Oil & Gas Journal:

The outlook highlights three trends that underscore the expectation that non-OPEC crude and condensate supply will increase by an average of 1 million b/d/year during 2019-23:

• Infrastructure catching up with US shale growth.

• Streamlined, cost-effective offshore projects from the Gulf of Mexico, Latin America, and the North Sea brought to production.
• Russia moving to a “coordinated” growth strategy.

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