AMLO Price-Freeze Supports Gasoline Demand

President-elect Lopez Obrador’s promise to freeze gasoline prices will support gasoline demand, which is on track to grow by 15,000 b/d this year. An increase in refinery throughput will more than offset the impact on Mexico’s imports though. We expect a modest increase in utilization rates in the second half of the year, increasing gasoline supply by 60,000 b/d compared to the first half of 2018 and reducing Mexico’s import requirement by 40,000 b/d.