Indian transportation fuel demand will maintain this year’s pace of growth of 160,000 b/d to reach 2.7 million b/d in 2019. Gasoline and diesel demand growth will both remain solid, though an acceleration is unlikely as the central bank starts to raise interest rates. With refining capacity staying flat, India’s exports of both fuels should fall in 2019.
“There is a misperception that a supply crunch is imminent,” said Sarah Emerson, an analyst at ESAI Energy. “In a five-year horizon, the potential for non-OPEC supply growth is impressive. This will have a bearing on the degree to which OPEC will have to dip into spare capacity to offset disruptions.”