Mexico Fighting to Stay Put

Mexico’s incoming administration says it will increase Mexico’s crude production by 600,000 b/d in two years to reach 2.5 million b/d by 2021. We see gains this size as out of reach in such a short time frame. Instead, we assess that a $4 billion shot in the arm will help Pemex reverse declines and boost production by closer to 20,000 b/d next year, to 1.88 million b/d, and then by perhaps 100,000 b/d in 2020.