Why Trump is going soft on Saudi Arabia: oil and Iran

Yahoo Finance:

Saudi Arabia has been pumping more oil, to help replace the Iranian crude coming off the market. That generates more oil revenue for Saudi Arabia, and keeps oil and gasoline prices stable, which helps Trump, since he won’t have to explain a sudden spike in gas prices as a consequence of his Iran policy. “The Iran sanctions are a real boon to Saudi Arabia, which wants Iran hobbled,” says Sarah Emerson, president of research firm ESAI Energy. “This is a win-win for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, or at least their two governments.”

Crude-by-Rail Returns Until More Pipelines

Both the Canadian Oil Sands and the Permian Basin face takeaway constraints and discounted prices due to full pipelines. Increased crude-by-rail will be necessary until additional pipeline capacity comes online, and the pace of production will decelerate in the near-term.

After growing by a record 1.4 million b/d in 2018 led by the Permian Basin, total US shale production will increase by an annual average of 680,000 b/d in 2019 and 700,000 b/d in 2020. Output from the Canadian Oil Sands will also slow as investment and project expansions are deferred until new pipelines are built. Oil Sands production will increase by only 60,000 b/d in 2019 and 130,000 b/d in 2020, after growing by over 200,000 b/d this year.