Iraq is likely to lobby for a pass if OPEC+ agrees to a production cut. Baghdad’s agreement with Iraqi Kurdistan to restart northern exports of Kirkuk crude will enable Iraq to increase crude oil production by the end of 2018. Capacity gains in Iraq’s south will be constrained by the limited export infrastructure at Basrah.
According to ESAI, energy experts predict that 2018 will end with the oil market in surplus. The surplus could increase in 2019 but OPEC+ will put together a deal to cut production and lift prices. Regions like China are expecting to rebound.
Gongreville Refinery in France shut down entirely on November 21st and production continues to be curtailed at Total’s Grandpuits and Feyzin. These disruptions, which will likely last into December, will reduce French throughout.