In 2019, European demand for transport fuels will rise after increasing in 2017 and 2018. While this year’s demand growth deceleration was led by diesel, next year gasoline and jet fuel will be largely responsible. However, with demand for all three major fuels continuing to rise and regional throughput slated to fall, slowing demand growth will not prove too bearish.
Fundamentals have looked weaker and weaker as final 2018 data come in, and macroeconomic developments encourage perceptions of further weakness. Even so, if the OPEC+ cut materializes and is extended, fundamentals will tighten and put upward pressure on oil prices.
The OPEC+ deal will ensure another year of robust NGL supply growth in 2019, leading to an excess of LPG.
According to ESAI Energy’s recently released One-Year Global Fuels Outlook, the US gasoline surplus will expand by roughly 80 000 bpd next year as demand continues to plateau and output keeps rising. Since first moving into surplus in 2016 the US gasoline balance has risen steadily to roughly 350 000 bpd this year. As a result of a growing surplus, combined US exports of finished gasoline and motor gasoline blending components will rise to over 1.0 million bpd next year.