Election-year uncertainty, growing concern that provincial production quotas could continue into 2020 and the delay of key pipeline projects appear poised to derail Canadian oil sands production this year.
Price changes favoring NGLs and soaring Chinese ethylene production are all unfavorable for marketed naphtha demand.
Venezuela’s fuel consumption has contracted sharply because of hyperinflation, unemployment, emigration, security concerns, electricity outages, and lack of spare parts for automobiles and other machinery. These trends are set to worsen in the months ahead.
Singapore refining margins were extraordinarily weak early in 2019, dragged down by poor naphtha and gasoline cracks. There will be only a moderate recovery of light distillate in 2019. Consequently, toward the end of 2019 when middle distillate strengthens, benchmark Singapore refining margins will only return to “ordinary” levels. This will prevent runaway throughput growth in Asia.