Stumbling into Military Conflict

Hellenic Shipping News: The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC met to assess the oil market and the impact of the OPEC+ production restraint. The committee commended the “agile and flexible approach” of the OPEC+ countries, but made no specific recommendations beyond continuing to monitor the oil market until the next meeting in June. That JMMC meeting will take place just before the full Ministerial meeting at which the member states will decide whether to continue the current production restraint. The JMMC communique pointed out “critical uncertainties” such as trade negotiations, monetary policy and geopolitical challenges. Among those geopolitical challenges are rising tensions between Iran and the U.S. since the non-renewal of sanctions waivers early this month. The possibility that the two countries could stumble into direct military conflict is rising.

North Sea Production Declines Finally End in 2020

In 2019, North Sea crude and condensate output will fall for the third consecutive year, by roughly 70,000 b/d to an average of 2.5 million b/d as declines in Norway continue to outpace gains in the U.K. However, in 2020, North Sea output will rise by 200,000 b/d to more than 2.7 million b/d due primarily to the ramp-up of production at the Johan Sverdrup project.