There are ways to avoid the tariff on imports of Mexican crude oil, but at this point it is unclear whether those will succeed. If not, some refiners will pay more and some crude will head to Asia.
With a historic mandate, the Modi government aspires to develop the Indian economy based on an investment-driven model with welfare measures to lift the rural population out of poverty. Policy continuity and large expenditure on infrastructure projects will support the country’s total oil demand to rise by 230,000 b/d this year, with robust increase in diesel, LPG and gasoline.
Oilfield Technology: Russian production fell by 170 000 bpd from April to May 2019, as the disruption to oil exports caused output to fall to 60 000 bpd less than the OPEC+ commitment. The last hurdle is restoring 750 000 bpd via the northern leg of Druzhba. Due to spare export capacity, however, ESAI energy believes Russian production will recover in June.
After falling by roughly 20,000 b/d last year, North African transport fuel demand is expected to increase by a similar amount this year to an average of roughly 1.2 million b/d. Despite growing demand, the North African transport fuel deficit will fall this year due primarily to Egyptian refinery upgrades.