European demand slipped by only 10,000 b/d year-on-year in the first quarter, a reprieve from the fast decline reported in late 2018. With demand expected to improve further, Europe could log a slight increase in 2019 despite its fragile economy. Europe’s outlook is material, as its stabilization is one of the key factors behind the strengthening in global demand expected for the second half of this year.
North American Shale: ESAI Energy reports crude and condensate production from the Bakken shale basin will surpass current record output into 2020. In the company’s recently published North America Watch, ESAI Energy points to increasing rig productivity and efficiency gains in areas outside of the Bakken core that are translating into high growth rates for the basin as a whole. Bakken production growth will add almost 250,000 barrels per day to total U.S. crude production over the next two years.
Since dropping 20,000 b/d in 2017, non-OPEC Africa supply of crude and condensate halfway recovered with growth of 10,000 b/d in 2018 and is on track to grow another 5,000 b/d, reaching 1.23 million b/d in 2020. Ghana’s improved investment climate has offset the decline in other non-OPEC countries, and several OPEC participating countries are overhauling petroleum laws to stimulate competition.