Tax Cuts Sustain U.S. Demand Growth

The passage of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act will support U.S. transport fuel consumption this year and prevent any deceleration in demand growth. In 2018, ESAI Energy expects total U.S. consumption of transport fuels to rise by 160,000 b/d to over 15.4 million b/d after growing by 150,000 b/d last year. The effect of the tax cut will be particularly pronounced for gasoline but also provide a boost for diesel, jet fuel and bunker fuel. Rising U.S. gasoline consumption will help to sustain global demand growth at over 400,000 b/d. Meanwhile, global diesel demand is expected to rise by a similar amount in 2018, outpacing supply gains, and providing modest support for spreads.

Global Demand Growth Plateaus in 2018

In 2018, global gasoline demand growth will remain steady at roughly 410,000 b/d as resurgent consumption growth in the U.S. and other OECD nations offsets a slowdown in non-OECD countries. With demand gains largely expected to keep pace with supply, gasoline spreads to crude will narrow only marginally. The NYH RBOB spread to Brent is expected to narrow from $13 per barrel in 2017 to $12 in 2018.

A Perfect Storm–Now Updated thru 2024

A Perfect Storm--Now Updated thru 2024 -NGL Supply by Component: Field Condensate, Ethane, Propane, Butane, Pentanes/refinery naphtha, Pentanes Plus -NGL Demand by Component: Condensate (field and pentanes plus) , Ethane, Propane, and Butane and Pentanes -NGL Demand by Sector: Energy sector (diluent, crude blending, condensate splitters), Petchem sector, Household sector, and Transportation sector -Regional Balances…

Scatter Shot Reform: Fuel Engine Pathways for Automotive Transportation, 2010-2025

Scatter Shot Reform: Fuel Engine Pathways for Automotive Transportation, 2010-2025 Motor transport accounts for more than half of global oil demand and comprises approximately 20 percent of total global energy demand. As a major driver in the future of energy, it is undergoing rapid transformation as opportunity and technology spread across the globe. With impending…

Russia’s South ULSD Pipeline Launched

BOSTON, MA, December 11, 2017 Russia’s South ULSD Pipeline Launched The start of ULSD exports to the Black Sea and Med markets via Russia’s South pipeline is not a prelude to massive upgrading investment and soaring diesel production, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published CIS Watch, an outlook on Russia’s refined product markets. In December,…

OPEC Puts Icing on the Cake

BOSTON, MA, December 1, 2017 OPEC Puts Icing on the Cake As expected, OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have extended their production agreement through 2018 and even assigned “soft targets” to include Nigeria and Libya. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Khalid Al Falih made it clear in his opening remarks that the goal of the year-old…