Global inventories of middle distillate and gasoline have reached critical levels where they are simultaneously preventing any recovery in diesel and jet fuel spreads to crude, and introducing more “normal” conditions to a previously tight gasoline market. The result should be a more typical
Reuters: May 12, 2016
“The good news is the world is swimming in crude oil, so there are options. This may make it economical to ship Eagle Ford crude or maybe ship in some North Sea crude,” Sarah Emerson, a managing principal at ESAI ENERGY LLC, said.
Low Venezuelan Throughput Threatens PetroCaribe In the wake of a series of severe refinery disruptions, ESAI Energy has revised down its expectations for Venezuelan throughput for the middle part of 2016. Those revisions, from already low utilization rates have led our expectations for balances in the country and the wider Caribbean Basin to deteriorate further…
Unofficial Commercial Crude Stocks Rising Despite moderate oil product demand growth of 310,000 b/d, China is expected to increase net crude imports by 450,000 b/d to 7.1 million b/d in 2016. ESAI Energy believes in addition to over 70 million barrels of SPR fill and official commercial crude stock build, up to 90 million barrels…
Interaction of Global Gasoline, Condensate and Petchem Markets to 2025
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While the ceasefire may not last, and a near-term political settlement in Syria is unlikely, ISIS’s prospects in both Iraq and Syria appear to be decreasing. Do not expect enough political stability in either country to allow for consistent economic growth.
EU-16 transport fuel demand is expected to increase by an annual average of less than a 60,000 b/d in 2016 and 2017, a far cry from growth of nearly 130,000 b/d in 2015. Diminishing demand growth will limit the recovery of a weak global distillate market and keep regional diesel refining margins low.
Reuters: April 20, 2016
Sarah Emerson, a managing principal at ESAI Energy LLC, says the return of Algerian crude to the East Coast was expected given the collapse of the discount U.S. crude once enjoyed against Brent, the global benchmark. Low prices make it nearly impossible
In 2016 and 2017, Mainline expansions and new pipeline takeaway from the Bakken and PADD IV will result in in-creased capacity for North to South crude ﬂows in the midcontinent.
The decision by the producer group to not “freeze” production is a bit like Russian General Kutuzov not surrendering Moscow to Napoleon in 1812. Lower prices in the short-term will encourage lower production in many countries including the U.S.
Bloomberg: April 17, 2016
Oil slipped a second day as a meeting of major crude producers in Doha this weekend is seen having minimal impact on supplies. Futures slipped 0.6 percent in New York. Delegates from OPEC and other….
Argus Media, April 14, 2016
But Sarah Emerson, president of research firm ESAI, recently said she believes ANS to be a prime candidate to begin moving to Asia-Pacific as it did from 1996 to 2004.