This is an ESAI Energy Multi Client Study.
A 900,000 b/d drop in non-OPEC crude and condensate production in 2016 will encourage a price rally later this year. If that rally coincides with seasonal summer gasoline strength, then it could be quick and strong. Ample crude and product inventories, however, will temper the duration of the price rally. Even so, the market will return to the 40s in 2016.