In the realm of international relations and U.S. foreign policy, an integrated Europe allied to the U.S. is seen as a plus for concerted action to counteract instability in regions such as the Middle East, North Africa and even the Balkans. The election of independent, centrist, Emmanuel Macron, to the French Presidency over the weekend was a clear victory for Integrated Europe as Macron ran on a pro-Europe platform.
World Oil: April 25, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy, explains, “the price discount at Midland will ease as more crude makes its way to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The strategic situation between the United States and North Korea is approaching an inflection point. The
U.S. decision of whether to attack North Korea before it develops an intercontinental strike rides on its belief
in the strength of mutual nuclear deterrence. But, North Korea is seeking to close what they perceive as an
almost seventy-year-old window of vulnerability. The U.S. may decide (with the encouragement of its allies)
to act before that window closes. The possibility of military conflict is growing and will materially impact key
oil consumers, South Korea and Japan, among others.
Reuters: April 19, 2017
“At this point, there are no good reasons to rail crude to the East Coast,” said Sarah Emerson, a managing principal at ESAI Energy LLC, a consultancy.
Libya will not solve its own problems in 2017. And although international actors, including the US and Russia, have military presence in the country, their influence will not the tip scales toward national resolution or in favor of any faction. Continued violence and the undermining of the National Oil Company will keep oil production fluctuating between 400,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d for the foreseeable future.
North American Shale Magazine: April 12, 2017
Sarah Emerson, president of Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) located in Wakefield, Massachusetts, presented a paper entitled “U.S. Shale is Back and the Crude Migration to the East Resumes.”
Bloomberg : April 11, 2017
“There’s a lot we don’t know,” Chris Cote, an analyst at ESAI Energy in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “What we can see is that oil infrastructure is in a very poor state.”
Trump Administration statements after the missile strike on Syria indicated a broad change in policy regarding the future of the Assad regime in Syria. Whether this is followed by other military, economic, or political actions remains to be seen. But, we have entered a new era in the Syrian civil war, which signals a subtle but important change in the new Cold War in the Middle East.
At the end of 2014, Saudi Arabia, with its OPEC partners, opted to lift crude oil production and
pursue greater market share in the face of rising U.S. shale production and the expected removal of
sanctions on Iran. By the end of 2015, crude oil prices had tumbled under $40, Saudi and Iraqi
production had risen by 1.5 million b/d, a nuclear deal was indeed struck, and Iran was gearing up to
raise exports. U.S. shale producers had worked furiously to cut costs and stay in business, but their
production had finally crested and was declining. Ironically, in this market of low oil prices and
falling U.S. production, the U.S. government lifted the ban on crude oil exports.
The conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, by the Obama Administration, was indicative of a subtle
shift in U.S. positioning vis a vis the Saudi-Iranian rivalry for hegemony in the Gulf. In a reversal, President
Trump is shifting the U.S. position back in favor of Saudi Arabia under the guise of fighting ISIS.
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Early indications from the Trump Administration hint at efforts to tip the balance back towards the Saudis.
ESAI Energy announced today the launch of its new proprietary client-only website. The new ESAI Energy Clarity™ Platform offers a user-friendly interface and search-oriented site where all written analysis, insights, data and forecasts are stored and served up for clients.
The Modi administration’s goal of making India’s vehicle fleet 100 percent electric and cutting crude imports in half by 2030 is unrealistic. Still, India should make substantial progress in deploying electric cars with government backing. This will dampen long-term transport fuel demand, especially for gasoline.
The seasonal increase in global refinery throughput will most likely hit in June this year. The strongest
underlying reasons being high product stocks, weak refining margins, and lower Arab Gulf exports.