Is There Really An Oil Shortage?

Oil Price: “I am not sure there is a supply shortage,” Khalid al-Falih, the energy minister of the world’s top oil exporter and OPEC’s largest producer, Saudi Arabia, told Reuters in the middle of May, commenting on concerns that a growing number of supply outages may have tipped the market into deficit.

Russian Oil Production Should Recover

World Pipelines: Russian production fell by 170 000 bpd from April to May, as the disruption to oil exports caused output to fall to 60 000 bpd less than the OPEC+ commitment. The last hurdle is restoring 750 000 bpd via the northern leg of Druzhba. Due to spare export capacity, however, Russian production will recover in June after falling to 11.1 million bpd in May.

Russian Oil Production Set to Recover

Oil and Gas Journal: Russian production fell by 170,000 b/d from April to May as the disruption to oil exports caused output to fall to 60,000 b/d less than the production-cut commitment. The last hurdle is restoring 750,000 b/d via the northern leg of Druzhba. However, thanks to the restoration of some pipeline flows and spare capacity in ports, Russian production will recover in June after falling to 11.1 million b/d in May, according to an analysis from ESAI Energy.

Russian Production to Recover

Hellenic Shipping News: Russian production fell by 170,000 b/d from April to May, as the disruption to oil exports caused output to fall to 60,000 b/d less than the OPEC+ commitment. The last hurdle is restoring 750,000 b/d via the northern leg of Druzhba. Due to spare export capacity, however, Russian production will recover in June after falling to 11.1 million b/d in May.

Russian Production Will Recover

Oilfield Technology: Russian production fell by 170 000 bpd from April to May 2019, as the disruption to oil exports caused output to fall to 60 000 bpd less than the OPEC+ commitment. The last hurdle is restoring 750 000 bpd via the northern leg of Druzhba. Due to spare export capacity, however, ESAI energy believes Russian production will recover in June.

OPEC+ Overcompliance Continues Through May

This month, members of the OPEC+ deal will produce nearly 43.3 million b/d, roughly 1.3 million b/d less than in October 2018, the baseline production month for the current deal, and in compliance with the deal’s pledged cuts of 1.2 million b/d. May marks the third consecutive month of overcompliance. While Saudi production drove compliance earlier, falling Russian production due to the temporary closure of the Druzhba pipeline has contributed to compliance in April and May.