Lighter Crude and Underused Pipelines

Growth from the Permian is expected to slow down slightly, averaging around 650,000 b/d over the next two years due to subdued productivity gains and investor pressure to rein in spending. This will bring West Texas Light (WTL) production to about 680,000 b/d or about 14 percent of the total. Tremendous pipeline capacity expansion will likely make quality batching easier, but still result in under-utilization out of both the Permian and the Rockies. Meanwhile, further pipeline expansion delays threaten Canadian Oil Sands production.

Capacity Outpaces Demand to 2020

ESAI Energy estimates that distillation capacity will rise by nearly 1.4 million b/d per annum in 2019 and 2020. The majority of this new capacity is being added in Asia and the Middle East and it will significantly outpace global demand for crude derived products. As a result, it will begin to put pressure on global utilization rates, despite higher throughput expectations linked to IMO. Most new capacity in Asia and the Middle East, including petchem-integrated units in the former, will process medium/heavy crude from the Middle East. This will make it challenging for U.S. exports to further penetrate the market. Among other things, this means U.S. exports will seek to displace competing suppliers at existing refineries.

Russian Crude Oil Exports Seen Rising Despite OPEC+ Deal

Bloomberg:Russia says its on track this month to fullyimplement the production cuts promised in the OPEC+ accord, yetits crude exports will be almost as high as before the deal,according to consultant ESAI Energy LLC. The irony of thesituation “will not be lost on the Saudis,” ESAI’s principalanalyst Andrew Reed said in a note. As the Middle Easternkingdom keeps a tight lid on its own shipments, Russia will sendmillions of extra barrels overseas in April as its domesticrefineries process less fuel, partly due to prolongedmaintenance at a major refinery owned by Rosneft PJSC, he said.

Transport Fuel Demand Plateaus in 2020

After rising by 160,000 b/d last year, European demand for transport fuels will rise by 100,000 b/d this year to an average of 9.7 million b/d as gasoline and jet fuel demand growth decelerates and residual bunker consumption falls outright. This slowing trend will continue through 2020, when European transport fuel consumption growth grinds to a halt, buffeted by economic headwinds.

Oil Futures Up on Supply Shortfall

Progressive Farmer: Under OPEC+ accord, Russia agreed to shoulder more than 50% of the total non-OPEC cuts, which stands at 400,000 bpd. However, it has since struggled to reach the agreed quota, due to reported opposition from domestic oil industry. According to ESAI Energy, Russian crude exports are expected to reach a multi-year high of 5.7 million bpd in April, driven by greater flow of Russian crude into Asia in a bid to expand market share. Higher export rate comes as Russian oil producing companies finally achieved full compliance with their quota of 228,000 bpd cut in March.

Russian Crude Exports to Soar in April

Oilfield Technology: Russian crude exports will reach a multiyear high of 5.7 million bpd in April, 400 000 bpd higher than average exports in the previous 5 months, according to a Market Alert released by ESAI Energy. Among other things, unusually high exports have implications for market share in Asia. As the past few years’ fluctuations in Russian exports have shown, unusually high exports are accompanied by greater flows of Russian crude into Asia.

Russian Crude Exports Soar in April

World Pipelines: Russian crude exports will reach a multiyear high of 5.7 million bpd in April, 400 000 bpd higher than average exports in the previous five months, according to a Market Alert released by ESAI Energy. Among other things, unusually high exports have implications for market share in Asia. As the past few years’ fluctuations in Russian exports have shown, unusually high exports are accompanied by greater flows of Russian crude into Asia.