The diesel import requirement in Brazil and Argentina, South America’s southern cone, will shrink by 30,000 b/d next year. Diesel demand is taking off in Brazil, but throughput will rise faster, causing the import requirement to shrink by as much as 60,000 b/d in the next twelve months. In Argentina, conversely, the import requirement will expand as demand remains flat and throughput declines.
In 2018 and 2019, European transport fuel demand growth will slow to an annual average of roughly 160,000 b/d. This slowdown is driven by a deceleration in diesel and jet fuel demand growth, particularly in Germany, where for the first time in a decade diesel demand will contract. Nevertheless, with demand for all three major transport fuels continuing to rise through 2019, and regional refinery throughput expected to slow, Europe’s distillate deficit will expand and gasoline surplus will narrow. These developments will be bullish for global product markets.
Hellenic Shipping News:
An excess of global refining capacity looms after 2021, according to ESAI Energy’s newly released, Global Refining Capacity Five Year Outlook. ESAI Energy projects a significant increase in new distillation capacity to 2023. After lagging demand growth in recent years, the coming capacity build cycle will significantly outpace demand. The resulting rise in spare capacity will reduce global utilization rates and put pressure on margins, particularly beyond 2021.
In its recently published Five-Year Global Fuels Outlook, ESAI Energy examines the effect of the International Marine Organization’s (IMO) 0.5 percent sulfur content cap on bunker fuels on transport fuel markets through 2023.
Progress on Russia’s oil tax reform hints at its likely impact on the future of refining. Most but not all refineries will be subsidized. Distillation capacity will level off after a prolonged period of expansion. Lastly, the new system will eliminate the incentive for investment in fuel oil destruction. However, the consequences for investment will be offset by market incentives stemming from new IMO regulations.
Today, the first tranche of sanctions on Iran go into effect. Iran will struggle with the economic implications but is unlikely to concede to the extensive demands of the Trump Administration. In November, the sanctions will turn to crude oil, complicating U.S. relations with a host of countries who import Iranian crude. The drama, therefore, is not just between the U.S. and Iran, but also between the U.S. and Iranian crude importers. Look for intended and unintended linkages between waivers to the sanctions and other economic or diplomatic objectives of the Trump Administration.
The 250,000 b/d increase in Russian production from May to July eclipses the growth hinted at by the Russian Energy Ministry. The opportunity to replace Iranian barrels undoubtedly is encouraging higher Russian output. In response, we now estimate annual Russian growth of 130,000 b/d in 2018 and 210,000 b/d in 2019. However, President Putin will eventually establish a new temporary production ceiling and resume coordination of production in the OPEC+ format.
Indian transportation fuel demand will maintain this year’s pace of growth of 160,000 b/d to reach 2.7 million b/d in 2019. Gasoline and diesel demand growth will both remain solid, though an acceleration is unlikely as the central bank starts to raise interest rates. With refining capacity staying flat, India’s exports of both fuels should fall in 2019.
“There is a misperception that a supply crunch is imminent,” said Sarah Emerson, an analyst at ESAI Energy. “In a five-year horizon, the potential for non-OPEC supply growth is impressive. This will have a bearing on the degree to which OPEC will have to dip into spare capacity to offset disruptions.”
Oil & Gas Journal:
The outlook highlights three trends that underscore the expectation that non-OPEC crude and condensate supply will increase by an average of 1 million b/d/year during 2019-23:
• Infrastructure catching up with US shale growth.
• Streamlined, cost-effective offshore projects from the Gulf of Mexico, Latin America, and the North Sea brought to production.
• Russia moving to a “coordinated” growth strategy.
Global investment in ethane crackers and other olefins units will lead to overcapacity and intensifying inter-fuel competition in the NGL and naphtha markets, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published Global NGL Five Year Outlook. As ESAI Energy describes, announced projects include a potential 58 million tons of ethylene capacity, far more than global ethylene demand can plausibly grow. However, a closer look at what will pan out leads to the unmistakable conclusion that feedstock demand growth and pricing will be less bullish than many believe.
Driven higher by expected increases in production in Libya, Africa’s crude production should rise by 100,000 b/d to 7.35 million b/d in 2019. This marks an acceleration of growth from this year, when crude production increased only 45,000 b/d.
In 2019, Latin America’s regional crude surplus should average 3.4 million b/d, down 400,000 b/d from 3.8 million b/d in 2017. Over the two years, production will fall by 380,000 b/d, led by the collapse in Venezuela. Meanwhile, regional refinery throughput will rise by 20,000 b/d. Free of the weight of Venezuela, the non-OPEC Latin America balance would rise by 250,000 b/d in the same period.
The Middle East’s exportable surplus of diesel will grow by 90,000 b/d in the second half of 2018 to reach 490,000 b/d, with Europe absorbing most of the increase. New refining capacity in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will boost the region’s surplus further in the first half of 2019, but stagnating import needs in Europe in that period could lead to an oversupply, putting pressure on diesel spreads to crude.
After falling for the second straight year to 2.6 million b/d in 2018, North Sea crude and condensate production will plateau in 2019 before rising sharply in 2020 as a result of the start-up of Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup mega-project. Led by Norway, North Sea output will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 70,000 b/d from 2020 to 2023, when it will reach 2.9 million b/d.