Bloomberg: U.S. crude exports to Asia should rise by ~400k b/d both this year and next as it will play “a strong Asia hand” given reduction in Venezuelan and Iranian exports, according to ESAI Energy’s Global Crude Oil Outlook.
“Asia remains the prize, and Saudi Arabia and the U.S. will be the biggest winners,” says Sarah Emerson, ESAI energy managing principal. Venezuela’s crude exports will fall to ~500k b/d by end of this year. Brazil and other producers “are stepping into the breach,” lifting exports to China by close to 300k-400k b/d in recent months . Flow of Latin American crude to Asia will be higher in 2019 than last year, despite the drop in Venezuela output .
In 2019, Asia is expected to take ~180k b/d more crude from Latin America versus 2018, Emerson says by phone. From the Middle East, Asia is expected to take ~600k b/d less in 2019 versus 2018 because of Iran sanctions, even as other regional countries step up their shipments, she also says. Even if most of Iranian volumes are lost to the market, they can be replaced by Saudis, U.A.E., yet these producers will compete with Latin American exports, as well as higher African and FSU exports to Asia