BOSTON, MA, September 6, 2017
CPC Blend Exports to Soar
By the end of this year, higher Kashagan production will cause CPC Blend exports to climb to 1.4 million b/d, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published CIS Watch. By comparison, in the year through August the flow of CPC Blend exports fell short of 1.2 million b/d. According to ESAI Energy, the increase in CPC Blend exports will weaken Atlantic basin light sweet fundamentals underlying Brent.
According to CIS Watch, a one-year outlook on crude fundamentals in Russia and the Caspian, the increase in CPC Blend exports are already beginning in September, when they are scheduled to reach a new high of nearly 1.3 million b/d, up from less than 1.2 million b/d in the year to date. Rising production at Kashagan will account for the higher exports. Production, which was an average 180,000 b/d for most of the summer, will approach 300,000 b/d in September and 370,000 b/d by the end of the year.
“We have known for some time that Kashagan production, which almost stopped growing for most of the summer, would expand again after summer,” comments ESAI Energy Principal Andrew Reed. “The September loading schedule for CPC Blend confirms a big month-on-month increase in September. This is evidence that production and exports are indeed expanding very quickly. This will put some bearish pressure on the light sweet crude market.”
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