Both the Canadian Oil Sands and the Permian Basin face takeaway constraints and discounted prices due to full pipelines. Increased crude-by-rail will be necessary until additional pipeline capacity comes online, and the pace of production will decelerate in the near-term.
After growing by a record 1.4 million b/d in 2018 led by the Permian Basin, total US shale production will increase by an annual average of 680,000 b/d in 2019 and 700,000 b/d in 2020. Output from the Canadian Oil Sands will also slow as investment and project expansions are deferred until new pipelines are built. Oil Sands production will increase by only 60,000 b/d in 2019 and 130,000 b/d in 2020, after growing by over 200,000 b/d this year.