While the Permian battles pipeline constraints, Corpus Christi will benefit from growth returning to the Eagle Ford. Higher production will lift exports from Corpus Christi to around 450,00 b/d over the next 12 months. But bottlenecks are likely in the second half of 2019 as port expansion plans do not keep up with the expected influx of crude from new Permian Basin pipeline projects coming online in 2H 2019.
Monthly Permian production growth (conventional and shale) has averaged almost 70,000 b/d since the start of the year. But by this summer, ESAI Energy expects this growth will face increasing pressure from full pipelines and labor shortages. The pressure will last through the next twelve months, until additional takeaway capacity starts to come online.