Transport Fuel Demand Growth Decelerating

EU-16 transport fuel demand is expected to increase by an annual average of less than a 60,000 b/d in 2016 and 2017, a far cry from growth of nearly 130,000 b/d in 2015. Diminishing demand growth will limit the recovery of a weak global distillate market and keep regional diesel refining margins low.

March 18, 2016 A Bullish Turn for Gasoline

NYH gasoline spreads will rise above $20 per barrel this summer. Demand growth, which will be smaller this year compared to 2015, is only part of the reason behind anticipated gasoline strength in 2016. More notably, weak demand and oversupply for other refined products, especially diesel, will limit throughput and constrain gasoline supply.

March 16, 2016 Iran Forces Crude Into Europe

The EU-16’s crude import requirement will remain unchanged at about 8 million b/d from 2015 to 2016 as a forecast drop in refinery throughput is mostly offset by a decline in North Sea production. Meanwhile, a resurgent Iran, intent on restoring European market share, will push barrels into Europe, and thus place downward pressure on European crude prices. As a result, Russia and other suppliers will have a portion of their exports crowded out of the European market.

March 14, 2016 Production Growth To Return As Latin America Liberalizes

After falling in 2016, crude oil output growth should return to Latin America and reach 100,000 b/d by 2020. Growth will come as a liberalization trend sweeps the region’s oil industries in the short term due to low oil prices and a political shift to the right. As a result, foreign investment and participation in Latin America’s upstream will be a key component of production increases in the second half of the decade.

March 11, 2016 Russia to Export 180,000 b/d more Crude in 2016

Russia will export about 180,000 b/d more crude in 2016 compared to last year. Exports via pipelines and Far East ports leading directly to Asia will only increase 50,000 b/d, with the remainder of the growth coming in outflows from European ports. Higher exports from European ports will encourage greater outflows of Russian crude from Europe to Asia, intensifying the battle for market share there as well as in Europe.

March 8, 2016 Libyan Production Will Not Recover

The ongoing civil war and the rise of ISIS in Libya will carry on for years. Western powers are taking steps consistent with counter-terrorism but not necessarily supportive of reconciliation or the establishment of a functioning government. This means Libya’s crude production will remain constrained by realities on the ground perhaps for years.