Asia’s Fuel Subsidies Not Enough to Support Oil Demand Growth

Hydrocarbon Engineering:

Fuel price increases will outpace Asian governments’ ability to offset them with subsidies, according to ESAI Energy’s recently published Asia Watch. India, Malaysia, and the Philippines have already boosted subsidies for gasoline and diesel and Indonesia could soon follow, with national elections coming in 2019. But weakening local currencies are exacerbating the effects of rising oil prices for consumers in many Asian countries. At the same time, trade tensions between China and the US are eroding regional business confidence and threaten to drag on Asian economic growth next year.

Oil Edges Lower in Wednesday Trade

DTN:

Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange nearest to delivery and the front month Brent contract on the Intercontinental Exchange edged lower from Tuesday’s shallowly mixed session ahead of weekly supply data for the United States to be released midmorning, and following bullish statistics released late Tuesday afternoon by the American Petroleum Institute.

There is Enough Crude Supply

Hydrocarbon Engineering:
In its recently published, Global Crude Oil Outlook, ESAI Energy asserts that there will be enough crude oil supply in 2019 as long as there are no significant new disruptions. Even with the estimated loss of 1.1 million bpd of Iranian exports, more crude production from the US, Brazil, UK, Russia and the Arab Gulf producers can offset other declines and still meet demand for crude-derived petroleum products.

Eliminating Permian Bottleneck by 2020

Oilfield Technology:

In the next five years, potential pipeline projects could add over 5 million bpd to US destinations at Cushing and to USGC port locations, significantly increasing US crude oil exports. Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy, however, points out that “not all of these projects may go forward, but the race to bring more capacity will be key in determining the amount and timing of production growth, not only for the Permian, but for the other US shale basins and the Canadian Oil Sands”.

Strategic Stockpiling to Support China’s Crude Imports

Oil Voice:

China’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) depot in Jinzhou officially started filling in August 2018, bringing the existing depot capacity to a total of 249.1 million barrels, according to ESAI Energy’s new released China Watch report. The launch of this site suggests that Beijing is slowly progressing towards the end of its Phase II SPR, and that filling the government depot alone could add 70,000 b/d to Chinese crude demand between now and the end of 2018 and another 150,000 b/d in 2019.

Strategic Stockpiling to Support China’s Crude Imports

Hellenic Shipping News:
China’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) depot in Jinzhou officially started filling in August 2018, bringing the existing depot capacity to a total of 249.1 million barrels, according to ESAI Energy’s new released China Watch report. The launch of this site suggests that Beijing is slowly progressing towards the end of its Phase II SPR, and that filling the government depot alone could add 70,000 b/d to Chinese crude demand between now and the end of 2018 and another 150,000 b/d in 2019.

Iran’s Loss, Russia’s Gain

Hellenic Shipping News:

Russia will export more crude beginning in September, with most incremental exports targeting Europe, according to ESAI Energy’s CIS Watch Crude Outlook. Russia’s higher exports will come just as European refiners cut imports of Iranian crude, turning Iran’s loss into Russia’s gain.