What is the perfect price for oil?

CNN Money:
When it’s too high, consumers start freaking out and using less. When it’s too low, oil companies cut back operations and lay off thousands of workers. Opinions on where the sweet spot currently lies differ widely, but analysts and strategists say it’s probably somewhere between $60 and $70 per barrel.

Reforming Capacity to Grow in China

Hydrocarbon Engineering:
China’s reforming capacity will grow by 400 000 bpd in 2018, displacing more than 100 000 bpd of the country’s mixed aromatics imports, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published ‘China Gasoline Production and Blending to 2020 Watch.’ After 2019, additional investment will fully wean China’s gasoline producers from these imports.

LPG Demand Grows in Waves

Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide:
“LPG will be a fast-moving market for the next couple of years,” comments Andrew Reed, ESAI Energy’s Head of NGLs. “The LPG market is prone to imbalances, so one might expect the expansion of supply to lead to a glut that would hamper prices and U.S. exports. But China will soak up more and more LPG in 2019, keeping exporters happy.”

New York Drivers May Get More Russian Gas in Their Tanks

Bloomberg:
East Coast drivers could be putting Russian gasoline into their fuel tanks without even knowing it. Already strong imports of blending components like naphtha will be paired with gasoline after Soviet refining tax breaks and investments give Russia surplus fuel to sell. Exports into Europe and the U.S. Atlantic basins will rise by 75,000 barrels a day, Energy Security Analysis, Inc. principal Andrew Reed says.

Hedges Limit Shale’s Gains From Oil Price Upside

Energy Intelligence:
After pressure from the investment community, many US independent Shale producers aggressively hedged 2018 production in 2017 in order to ensure or slightly improve their capital position.  Those hedges are now limited the upside of US Shale Producers.  Please read ESAI Energy’s Elisabeth Murphy’s interview with Energy Intelligence’s Deon Daugherty.

Iran’s crude exports to fall by 300,000 BPD in 2018

Kallanish Energy:
There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding what comes next after the U.S. Treasury reinstates economic sanctions on Iran and the possibility of exemptions or some sort of “special treatment” to allies in Europe.

But for now, U.S. research and consulting firm ESAI Energy forecasts the sanctions will reduce Iranian crude oil exports by roughly 300,000 barrels per day (BPD) by late this year.

Russia’s South ULSD Pipeline Launched

BOSTON, MA, December 11, 2017 Russia’s South ULSD Pipeline Launched The start of ULSD exports to the Black Sea and Med markets via Russia’s South pipeline is not a prelude to massive upgrading investment and soaring diesel production, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published CIS Watch, an outlook on Russia’s refined product markets. In December,…

OPEC Puts Icing on the Cake

BOSTON, MA, December 1, 2017 OPEC Puts Icing on the Cake As expected, OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have extended their production agreement through 2018 and even assigned “soft targets” to include Nigeria and Libya. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Khalid Al Falih made it clear in his opening remarks that the goal of the year-old…

Hedging and Pipelines Support Shale Growth

BOSTON, MA, November 29, 2017 Hedging and Pipelines Support Shale Growth Higher oil prices have encouraged hedging 2018 shale output, supporting production even as procyclical costs are lifting breakeven prices, according to ESAI Energy’s North America Watch. With a weighted average floor price of $50 per barrel, roughly 1.5 million b/d of production has been…

LNG Market to Rebalance

BOSTON, MA, November 28, 2017 LPG Market to Rebalance The end is in sight for the run on global LPG stocks, according to ESAI Energy’s recently published Global LPG One-Year Outlook. In 2018, the geographically widespread growth of LPG production from fractionation will gradually begin to pull the market out of deficit. Year-on-year declines in…