Crude-by-rail volumes higher in 2019

World Pipelines:

In 2019, production growth will necessarily slow down in two key US shale basins due to pipeline constraints, according to ESAI Energy’s recently published North America Watch. Crude oil from the booming Permian Basin in West Texas has already been impacted with steep price discounts from a lack of pipeline takeaway, but the Bakken in North Dakota will start to feel the pinch next year as record production levels fill available pipeline space. Since production growth will slow down but not decline, these regions will be increasingly dependent on sending crude by railcar to get to markets in 2019.

Product Demand Growth Succumbs to Economic Pressures in 2020

OilVoice:

According to ESAI Energy’s recently released Two-Year Global Fuels Outlook, global demand for gasoline, gasoil, jet fuel, kerosene, and fuel oil is expected to rise by a combined 770,000 b/d in 2019, following an increase of just 440,000 b/d this year. This acceleration will be driven primarily by a return to demand growth in China. However, in 2020, a slowdown in global economic growth, in combination with relatively high petroleum product prices, will limit demand growth to 500,000 b/d

Why Trump is going soft on Saudi Arabia: oil and Iran

Yahoo Finance:

Saudi Arabia has been pumping more oil, to help replace the Iranian crude coming off the market. That generates more oil revenue for Saudi Arabia, and keeps oil and gasoline prices stable, which helps Trump, since he won’t have to explain a sudden spike in gas prices as a consequence of his Iran policy. “The Iran sanctions are a real boon to Saudi Arabia, which wants Iran hobbled,” says Sarah Emerson, president of research firm ESAI Energy. “This is a win-win for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, or at least their two governments.”

China Mega-Refineries Barely Impact Diesel Supply

Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide:

China will add 900 000 bpd of crude distillation capacity between late 2018 and early 2019, but China’s overall production of transport fuels will grow less than one might think, according to ESAI Energy’s newly released China Watch. Most notably, ESAI Energy projects China’s overall diesel production could grow by 50 000 bpd or less in 2019. The growth of China’s supply of middle distillate and overall transport fuel output has implications for Asian product markets and China’s least sophisticated independent refineries struggling to remain viable in the domestic market.

China Mega-Refineries Barely Impact Diesel Supply

Hydrocarbon Engineering:

China will add 900 000 bpd of crude distillation capacity between late 2018 and early 2019, but China’s overall production of transport fuels will grow less than one might think, according to ESAI Energy’s newly released China Watch. Most notably, ESAI Energy projects China’s overall diesel production could grow by 50 000 bpd or less in 2019. The growth of China’s supply of middle distillate and overall transport fuel output has implications for Asian product markets and China’s least sophisticated independent refineries struggling to remain viable in the domestic market.

Asia’s Fuel Subsidies Not Enough to Support Oil Demand Growth

Hydrocarbon Engineering:

Fuel price increases will outpace Asian governments’ ability to offset them with subsidies, according to ESAI Energy’s recently published Asia Watch. India, Malaysia, and the Philippines have already boosted subsidies for gasoline and diesel and Indonesia could soon follow, with national elections coming in 2019. But weakening local currencies are exacerbating the effects of rising oil prices for consumers in many Asian countries. At the same time, trade tensions between China and the US are eroding regional business confidence and threaten to drag on Asian economic growth next year.

Oil Edges Lower in Wednesday Trade

DTN:

Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange nearest to delivery and the front month Brent contract on the Intercontinental Exchange edged lower from Tuesday’s shallowly mixed session ahead of weekly supply data for the United States to be released midmorning, and following bullish statistics released late Tuesday afternoon by the American Petroleum Institute.