OPEC+ Can Manage 2019, but Maybe Not 2020

Hellenic Shipping News: Weak demand and soft crude oil prices mean that early next week the OPEC+ countries should extend their production restraint another six months. They will be rewarded with higher crude oil prices (unless the trade dispute significantly worsens, or further chaos comes out of the G20 meeting). It would be in the best interests of the group to extend this production restraint again in six months, as the call on OPEC falls further in 2020. But it will be harder to do so because, ceteris paribus, oil prices will be higher, and some of the current overcompliance will be gone, and some undercompliance will have set in. That does not bode well for agreeing to another extension. This will eventually put downward pressure on prices, even with the distillate demand requirements that accompany the IMO.

Bakken To Surpass Record Output Despite Bottlenecks

North American Shale: ESAI Energy reports crude and condensate production from the Bakken shale basin will surpass current record output into 2020. In the company’s recently published North America Watch, ESAI Energy points to increasing rig productivity and efficiency gains in areas outside of the Bakken core that are translating into high growth rates for the basin as a whole. Bakken production growth will add almost 250,000 barrels per day to total U.S. crude production over the next two years.

Bakken To Surpass Record Output Despite Bottlenecks

Oilfield Technology: ESAI Energy reports crude and condensate production from the Bakken shale basin will surpass current record output into 2020. In the company’s recently published North America Watch, ESAI Energy points to increasing rig productivity and efficiency gains in areas outside of the Bakken core that are translating into high growth rates for the basin as a whole. Bakken production growth will add almost 250 000 bpd to total US crude production over the next two years.

Bakken to surpass record output despite gas bottlenecks

World Pipelines: ESAI Energy reports crude and condensate production from the Bakken shale basin will surpass current record output into 2020. In the company’s recently published North America Watch, ESAI Energy points to increasing rig productivity and efficiency gains in areas outside of the Bakken core that are translating into high growth rates for the basin as a whole. Bakken production growth will add almost 250 000 bpd to total US crude production over the next two years.

Singapore Faces Challenging Demand Shift from IMO 2020

Hellenic Shipping News: ESAI Energy’s recently released Global Fuels 12-month Outlook highlights how Asia will bear the brunt of the demand shift caused by the International Maritime Organization’s new sulfur cap for shipping fuels in 2020. Asia makes up 40 percent of global bunker demand, with Singapore, China, and Hong Kong accounting for most of that market. At the same time, the relative availability of MGO to LSFO in Asia means that MGO will be a more likely substitute in that market. In other regions, substantial shifts are taking place from HSFO to LSFO. A big shift in demand will move global markets.

Ship Fuel Change Becomes Refiner Gamble As Heavy Crude Dwindles

Gulf Times: A change in ship fuel that seemed like a sure profit churner for sophisticated refiners a year ago isn’t a clear winner now. When the International Maritime Organisation imposed clean-fuel rules for ships starting in 2020, the popular outlook was that thicker, dirtier crude would plummet in price, as it yields more of the high-sulphur fuel oil that can’t be burned unless ships have special equipment to scrub their emissions. Diesel prices would surge as vessel owners use it as a substitute.