More Canadian crude could flow to US, Asia
Calgary: Canadian crude supplies to the US Gulf coast could increase by 300,000-400,000 b/d by 2021, Energy Security Analysis president Sarah Emerson said during the Canadian Energy Research Institute’s oil and gas symposium.
In 2016 Canadian crude exports to the US totaled around 3.2mn b/d, slightly above levels seen in 2015. Exports from Canada to other destinations were at 40,000 b/d in 2016, up from 20,000 b/d in the previous year.
Asian refineries built to process heavy crude can take up to 450,000 b/d of additional Canadian heavy crude. Total Asian demand for medium, heavy and extra-heavy grades is expected to increase by 1.2mn b/d in the medium-term, Emerson said today.
With planned crude pipeline projects coming on line in Canada through 2030, Emerson expects pipeline capacities to start outpacing crude production in Canada by 2021-2022. Crude production is expected to reach almost 6mn b/d by 2030, with pipeline capacities reaching 7mn b/d during the same period.