Scatter Shot Reform: Fuel Engine Pathways for Automotive Transportation, 2010-2025

Motor transport accounts for more than half of global oil demand and comprises approximately 20 percent of total global energy demand. As a major driver in the future of energy, it is undergoing rapid transformation as opportunity and technology spread across the globe. With impending climate change policy and the explosion in the global vehicle fleet, the next 15 years will be the crucible that determines how wheeled transport influences business, motivates governments, and impacts prosperity.

Scatter Shot Reform: Fuel Engine Pathways for Automotive Transportation, 2010-2025 analyzes how the transport fuel markets will develop in the coming decades, evaluating currently available literature and scholarship, along with public and private data sources, to derive an independent outlook on the industry. ESAI’s analysis shows that competing and sometimes conflicting reform will result in a vastly different fuels landscape than the comparatively simple gasoline and diesel market in place today. The emergence of technologies will not be orderly—instead developing slowly and haphazardly.

The study examines the potential market impact on transport fuel demand of multiple emerging fuel and technology pathways: improved spark-ignition and compression ignition technologies, battery-electric and plug-in powertrains, ethanol, biodiesel, CNG and hydrogen, and Fischer-Tropsch liquids