ESAI Energy’s paper market analysis examines macroeconomic indicators such as stock markets, gold and the dollar, but focuses on oil market activity by index investment, managed money and swap dealers. The current One Week Outlook on Crude Oil Prices provides a quick outlook that weights technical signals, crude and product fundamentals and macroeconomic news.
ESAI Energy’s paper market analysis builds on the work begun by Energy Security Analysis, Inc, which launched the first Hedge-Memo in 1993. The idea of integrating physical and paper market analysis was described in detail in the book, A Year on the (H)Edge: Integrating the Physical and Paper Fundamentals in the Oil Markets in 1994 and 1995. Then in 1996, ESAI published a multi-client study, Paper Oil: The State of the Markets and the Uses of Their Instruments, and in 1998, ESAI published with Risk Books, Crude Oil Hedging: Benchmarking Price Protection Strategies. The successor to the Hedge Memo, the Oil Energy Fundwatch, was published for more than 10 years, and in 2007, ESAI published a white paper entitled Financial Energy Markets and the Bubble in Prices: Does the Increase in Energy Trading by Index and Hedge Funds Affect Energy Prices?