Russia/Caspian

ESAI Energy has an unparalleled track record when it comes to providing timely insight into the oil markets of Russia and other former Soviet states. In 2014, ESAI Energy published From Russia without Sulfur: Russian Oil Tax Reform Upends Global Petroleum Product Markets, a unique refinery-by-refinery analysis of the consequences of Russia’s oil tax reform for Russia’s refining sector with a forecast of refining investment and closures, throughput, and product supply to 2020. In 2011, ESAI Energy published Russia Comes of Age: Restructured Exports Strengthen Russia’s Hand in Oil Markets, an in-depth study on crude production, demand, export infrastructure, exports by direction and the consequences for global crude trade flows and oil pricing in Asia. ESAI Energy regularly updates its outlook on FSU crude oil export flows by direction and quality.

Our track record of providing insight into the former Soviet states dates back to perestroika and the collapse of the Soviet Union when ESAI was at the center of the effort to understand and project supply and demand in the countries of the former Soviet Union. In 1992, ESAI published The Refining and Distribution System of the Republics of the Former Soviet Union, the first time Soviet refining capacity data and demand data were made available outside of the country. This study was accompanied by the first-ever publication of very detailed Soviet-era energy maps.

As the FSU countries began to climb out of the economic slump caused by the Soviet collapse, the impact of crude oil production from these countries on the rest of the world became a question of the pace of investment in refurbishing refineries and building pipelines. To further the understanding of its clients, in 1996, ESAI published Rebuilding Russia’s Refineries and Uncorking the Bottle: The Present and Future Status of Oil Export Pipelines and Terminals in the FSU.

In the meantime, ESAI launched Russiawatch in 1995 and through an exclusive partnership with Incotec (formerly Vniiktep, the energy research arm of the Soviet Gosplan) published a monthly analysis of crude oil and individual petroleum product supply and demand ever since. ESAI’s analysis of the FSU petroleum sector has evolved with the times, but ESAI has maintained an unbroken flow of data and analysis on the countries of the FSU. In 2003, Caspianwatch was launched and in 2005, Russiawatch and Caspianwatch were combined into CIS Watch. Since then ESAI’s research has continued. In 2009, ESAI published a white paper entitled Pursuing Global Influence: Oil, Gas and Russia’s New Foreign Policy of Confrontation. Also in 2009, ESAI launched the monthly report Eurasia Natural Gas Watch with data, analysis and projections for the supply, demand and trade of natural gas from the FSU countries.

The countries of the FSU will remain among the largest energy suppliers in the world. Anyone following the petroleum or natural gas markets will have to understand the broad range of issues that shape this massive and quixotic producer.

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