Saudi Diesel Exports to Rise

The Middle East’s exportable surplus of diesel will grow by 90,000 b/d in the second half of 2018 to reach 490,000 b/d, with Europe absorbing most of the increase. New refining capacity in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will boost the region’s surplus further in the first half of 2019, but stagnating import needs in Europe in that period could lead to an oversupply, putting pressure on diesel spreads to crude.

Stalemate Will Limit Libyan Production

Libya will not solve its own problems in 2017. And although international actors, including the US and Russia, have military presence in the country, their influence will not the tip scales toward national resolution or in favor of any faction. Continued violence and the undermining of the National Oil Company will keep oil production fluctuating between 400,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d for the foreseeable future.

Trump and a New Cold War in the Middle East

Trump Administration statements after the missile strike on Syria indicated a broad change in policy regarding the future of the Assad regime in Syria. Whether this is followed by other military, economic, or political actions remains to be seen. But, we have entered a new era in the Syrian civil war, which signals a subtle but important change in the new Cold War in the Middle East.