The latest talks over the RFS resulted in the announcement that the Trump administration will allow E15 gasoline to be sold year-round. Although policy details remain unclear, this development will move the RIN market into surplus, reduce D6 RIN prices, increase blending of ethanol into the gasoline pool at the expense of petroleum based components, and temper the recent crude-led rise in gasoline prices.
Plentiful crude, big increases in distillation capacity and decelerating petroleum product demand growth will pressure petroleum product spreads in 2018 and early 2019. The bearish pressure will not last long though. In the second half of 2019, there will be a diesel-driven recovery of refining margins as the market anticipates a spike in demand for gasoil and low sulfur fuel oil.
Wall Street Journal–December 13, 2017
Officials urge international offering for Aramco, rather than selling a stake to Beijing, which they fear would boost its standing in Middle East
Hydrocarbon Engineering–November 9, 2017
Russian refiners will increase production of transport fuels by 110 000 bpd next year, according to ESAI Energy’s recently published ‘CIS Watch One-Year Outlook.’
Oil & Gas Journal–October 25, 2017
ESAI Energy LLC forecasts leaner and smaller Canadian oil sands projects in the coming years as producers face high costs in a recovering oil-price environment.
Midland Reporter-Telegram August 28, 2017
“Strong growth from the U.S. and Canada will make OPEC’s task difficult,” Elisabeth Murphy, analyst with ESAI.
Ship & Bunker August 18, 2017
ESAI Energy Analyst, Chris Cote says the new IMO regulation “will turn the bunker fuel oil market on its head in 2020.”
World Oil August 16, 2017
ESAI Energy Analyst, Ian Page points out that “alternative vehicles will not have a major impact on global gasoline demand until after 2022.”
Oil & Gas Journal August 14, 2017
In its recent Five-Year Outlook, ESAI Energy points out that the call on Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries crude will remain under tremendous pressure over the next 5 years.
Oil & Gas Journal July 19, 2017
“Although we see that the USGC surplus could rise to 2 million b/d next year, its disposition is unclear,” said Elisabeth Murphy, an ESAI Energy analyst. “Lower prices will adversely impact the rate of growth coming from shale production.”
Oil & Gas Journal June 21, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy of ESAI said, “Although the pace of growth is expected to slow next year, US shale production is forecast to be about 500,000 b/d higher in 2018 than 2017, still very impressive growth.”
World Pipelines May 24, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy, points out that “until oil prices get closer to US$60 producers will continue to target the Bakken core where well performance is very high.
Bloomberg May 18, 2017
“The producers will have to work hard this summer to temper the surplus in the first quarter,” Sarah Emerson, managing director of ESAI Energy in Wakefield, Massachusetts, said …
World Oil: April 25, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy, explains, “the price discount at Midland will ease as more crude makes its way to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Reuters: April 19, 2017
“At this point, there are no good reasons to rail crude to the East Coast,” said Sarah Emerson, a managing principal at ESAI Energy LLC, a consultancy.