Russian Refining Expansion Moves Ahead

The strength of Russian crude demand and improving notional refining margins contrast with reports of weak Russian refining margins. Despite the tax maneuver and other setbacks to refineries, annual crude demand will bounce back from its recent low of 5.6 million b/d in 2016 to 5.75 million b/d in 2018. Coupled with secondary unit investment, higher throughput assures growing gasoline and diesel exports.

Europe’s IMO Vulnerable Refining Capacity

Europe has at least 1.2 million b/d of refining capacity that are at greater risk from new IMO specifications.  These refineries’ high yields of heavy fuel oil, smaller and less-efficient size, and lack of plans to invest in upgrading make them vulnerable to weaker demand for heavy fuel oil and widening spreads once IMO changes take effect. Other bigger refineries are investing to adapt to market changes and remain viable.