OPEC will start to raise crude oil output this summer, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE contributing the majority of new production. The increase will be at least 450,000 b/d but could be substantially larger if OPEC attempts to replace more of Venezuela’s lost volumes. Russia and other non-OPEC parties to the November 2016 production deal will also increase output in the next several months.
OPEC has agreed to rollback overcompliance with the original production deal of November 2016. This appears to mean an increase of 450,000 b/d among the voluntary over-complying countries, with the bulk coming from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. However, the communique could also be interpreted as enabling an increase of as much as 1 million b/d, with some members replacing lost volumes from involuntary over-complying countries like Venezuela. At this point, the small step interpretation is more likely.
Libya will not solve its own problems in 2017. And although international actors, including the US and Russia, have military presence in the country, their influence will not the tip scales toward national resolution or in favor of any faction. Continued violence and the undermining of the National Oil Company will keep oil production fluctuating between 400,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d for the foreseeable future.