Regional crude production will decline severely in 2018. Regional production of crude oil and condensate is set to fall by more than 650,000 b/d to 7.9 million b/d in 2018, due mainly to enormous decreased in Venezuela, smaller declines in Mexico, and lackluster growth in Brazil.
Venezuela production has declined steeply and should fall under 1.2 million b/d by the end of 2018, to average 1.4 million b/d this year, 500,000 b/d below 2017 levels. The ConocoPhillips court rulings will help expedite the decline by complicating transport and logistics operations in the Caribbean. Already, PdVSA’s production has fallen far enough to force a choice between refinery throughput and exports. Meanwhile, President Maduro’s re-election invites more US sanctions but otherwise will not alter the production outlook.
Bloomberg : April 11, 2017
“There’s a lot we don’t know,” Chris Cote, an analyst at ESAI Energy in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “What we can see is that oil infrastructure is in a very poor state.”