We know from field-level production data that producers could unleash production from new fields. The only question is – how much, how soon? The loss of Iranian exports presents the opportunity for higher output. Production could increase from from 11.3 million b/d in September to at least 11.8 million b/d in 2020, and feasibly as high as 12.1 million b/d.
The E.P.A. will begin the process of allowing sales of E-15 gasoline year-round. Although the waiver will increase ethanol more significantly in the long term, short term demand impacts will be limited by investment requirements and consumer preferences. As a result, ESAI Energy forecasts a high of just 60,000 b/d of additional E-15 sales by 2020, or just 10,000 b/d of additional ethanol blending.