Latin America gasoline demand will decline by 90,000 b/d in 2019 and then remain flat in 2020, but this is not the whole picture, as hydrous ethanol consumption will increase by roughly offsetting amounts. While supply cuts will leave the gasoline deficit unchanged at 1.1 million b/d this year, capacity additions will narrow the import requirement in 2020.
Based on the analysis of non-state crude import quotas, we estimate that crude oil imports by the non-stateowned sector could decline by 640,000 b/d from 3.4 million b/d in January-June to 2.7 million b/d in the second half of the year. This analysis also suggests that Hengli Petchem will reach high utilization rates in the next few months, while Zhejiang Petchem will not be commercial this year. Overall, this means total crude oil imports should average about 9.3 million b/d for the rest of 2019, having a significant impact on crude oil demand.