New Quotas Mean Crude Oil Imports will Fall

Based on the analysis of non-state crude import quotas, we estimate that crude oil imports by the non-stateowned sector could decline by 640,000 b/d from 3.4 million b/d in January-June to 2.7 million b/d in the second half of the year. This analysis also suggests that Hengli Petchem will reach high utilization rates in the next few months, while Zhejiang Petchem will not be commercial this year. Overall, this means total crude oil imports should average about 9.3 million b/d for the rest of 2019, having a significant impact on crude oil demand.

Russian Romance with OPEC Blossoms

Russian embrace of OPEC+ is about both the oil price and Russian power. Collaborating with OPEC members has brought Russia much success in terms of its ability to insert itself as a regional powerbroker and otherwise expand its influence in the Middle East. This secondary goal decreases the likelihood of Russia breaking with the Saudis in coordinating production policy anytime soon.