Russian Crude Oil Exports Seen Rising Despite OPEC+ Deal

Bloomberg:Russia says its on track this month to fullyimplement the production cuts promised in the OPEC+ accord, yetits crude exports will be almost as high as before the deal,according to consultant ESAI Energy LLC. The irony of thesituation “will not be lost on the Saudis,” ESAI’s principalanalyst Andrew Reed said in a note. As the Middle Easternkingdom keeps a tight lid on its own shipments, Russia will sendmillions of extra barrels overseas in April as its domesticrefineries process less fuel, partly due to prolongedmaintenance at a major refinery owned by Rosneft PJSC, he said.

Oil Futures Up on Supply Shortfall

Progressive Farmer: Under OPEC+ accord, Russia agreed to shoulder more than 50% of the total non-OPEC cuts, which stands at 400,000 bpd. However, it has since struggled to reach the agreed quota, due to reported opposition from domestic oil industry. According to ESAI Energy, Russian crude exports are expected to reach a multi-year high of 5.7 million bpd in April, driven by greater flow of Russian crude into Asia in a bid to expand market share. Higher export rate comes as Russian oil producing companies finally achieved full compliance with their quota of 228,000 bpd cut in March.

Russian Crude Exports to Soar in April

Oilfield Technology: Russian crude exports will reach a multiyear high of 5.7 million bpd in April, 400 000 bpd higher than average exports in the previous 5 months, according to a Market Alert released by ESAI Energy. Among other things, unusually high exports have implications for market share in Asia. As the past few years’ fluctuations in Russian exports have shown, unusually high exports are accompanied by greater flows of Russian crude into Asia.

Russian Crude Exports Soar in April

World Pipelines: Russian crude exports will reach a multiyear high of 5.7 million bpd in April, 400 000 bpd higher than average exports in the previous five months, according to a Market Alert released by ESAI Energy. Among other things, unusually high exports have implications for market share in Asia. As the past few years’ fluctuations in Russian exports have shown, unusually high exports are accompanied by greater flows of Russian crude into Asia.

Russian Crude Exports Soar in April

Hydrocarbon Engineering: Russian crude exports will reach a multiyear high of 5.7 million bpd in April, 400 000 bpd higher than average exports in the previous 5 months, according to a market alert released by ESAI Energy. Among other things, unusually high exports have implications for market share in Asia. As the past few years’ fluctuations in Russian exports have shown, unusually high exports are accompanied by greater flows of Russian crude into Asia.

LPG Surplus Rears its Head

Hellenic Shipping News: The end-winter transition from draws to builds in U.S. propane stocks is arriving early, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published Global NGL One Year Outlook. As ESAI Energy describes, the global LPG market will remain in surplus in 2019, resulting in stock builds, wide propane and butane discounts to naphtha. The implications range from the negative impact on petchem demand for naphtha in Asia and Europe to the likelihood of propane and butane stranded in the Gulf Coast pricing into the U.S. petchem feed slate.

Surplus global LPG stocks to continue through 2019

The end-winter transition from draws to builds in US propane stocks is arriving early, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published Global NGL One Year Outlook. As it describes, the global LPG market will remain in surplus in 2019, resulting in stock builds and wide propane and butane discounts to naphtha. The implications range from the negative impact on petchem demand for naphtha in Asia and Europe to the likelihood of propane and butane stranded in the Gulf Coast pricing into the US petchem feed slate.

Venezuela’s Future Still Looks Dark

Venezuela’s crude oil production sank to as low as 250,000 b/d during the blackout last week. We estimate monthly production will be 750,000 b/d, down 200,000 b/d from January and February. While Maduro continues to hang on – and we expect he will manage to do so for months, not weeks — the US continues to apply tighter sanctions. Secondary sanctions are on in practice, if not in law. Rosneft and ChinaOil will still lift as much as 250,000 b/d. With throughput low, a sustainable production level over the next couple of months for Venezuela is around 450,000 b/d. Although a political transition does not appear imminent, a clear-eyed look at what would come next shows that production will not rise back above 1 million b/d any time soon.

Project Delays Lower Oil Sands Production

Planned Canadian Oil Sands projects are being pushed back in response to further delays in pipeline egress and the mandated output cuts by the Alberta provincial government. The outlook for Oil Sands production in 2019 has worsened, with production now forecast to be almost 230,000 b/d lower than last year, averaging 2.7 million b/d. In 2019, lower levels of production will reduce the call on rail, lowering crude-by-rail volumes from the record highs set in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Nigeria Steps Up Crude Capacity, but Threats Remain

The January start of the Egina field added to Nigeria’s crude oil productive capacity, but Nigerian production will remain close to 1.65 million b/d while the OPEC+ production deal is in place. By the end of 2019, production could grow to 1.70 million b/d. While bigger gains are possible, prospects are clouded by renewed threats from insurgent groups in the Niger Delta, whose campaigns have crippled oil infrastructure in recent years. The January start of the Egina field added to Nigeria’s crude oil productive capacity, but Nigerian production will remain close to 1.65 million b/d while the OPEC+ production deal is in place. By the end of 2019, production could grow to 1.70 million b/d. While bigger gains are possible, prospects are clouded by renewed threats from insurgent groups in the Niger Delta, whose campaigns have crippled oil infrastructure in recent years.