ESAI Energy estimates that distillation capacity will rise by nearly 1.4 million b/d per annum in 2019 and 2020. The majority of this new capacity is being added in Asia and the Middle East and it will significantly outpace global demand for crude derived products. As a result, it will begin to put pressure on global utilization rates, despite higher throughput expectations linked to IMO. Most new capacity in Asia and the Middle East, including petchem-integrated units in the former, will process medium/heavy crude from the Middle East. This will make it challenging for U.S. exports to further penetrate the market. Among other things, this means U.S. exports will seek to displace competing suppliers at existing refineries.