Summary: It is very likely that conflict in the Middle East will escalate in the coming weeks/months. Although impossible to foresee, military engagement is likely to be focused in Southern Lebanon and Northern Israel. Notably, the U.S. is moving military forces to the region, revealing U.S. concern that direct conflict between Israel and Iran is possible. All parties probably want to avoid damage to oil Infrastructure, but a longer and more wide-ranging escalation cannot be entirely ruled out.
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