A prolonged and broad-based civil war in Sudan could impact up to 220,000 b/d of crude oil supply. Although the conflict is in Sudan, South Sudan’s crude exports cross Sudan to Port Sudan, so both countries are impacted. While reports so far indicate that production and exports are continuing despite the violence, this could change either as the war widens geographically or if one of the warring factions chooses to target production and export infrastructure as a means of gaining leverage in the conflict or in any negotiations. As of today, we expect oil supply from the combined Sudan and South Sudan to fall by 100-150,000 b/d.