Shifting Capabilities Increase Chances of a Long-Range War in Ukraine

The war between Russia and Ukraine persists without significant territorial changes, leading to debates about Ukraine's summer counteroffensive. While Ukraine seeks to regain control, the fighting season may extend into November. Russian defenses have hindered significant gains, and Ukraine's long-range strikes into Russia are escalating the conflict, potentially shifting it to a long-range bombardment phase. Recent tensions over Ukrainian ports and grain exports via the Black Sea have global economic implications and raise concerns about NATO territory involvement.