U.S. Iran Deal in Sight

Summary: Since the beginning of 2023, Iranian crude oil production has risen by about 400,000 b/d. Most of that increase in production has shown up as exports to China. While the U.S. has not openly supported these additional exports, it seems the U.S. has looked the other way as its negotiations with Iran have intensified. Now, it seems like a prisoner swap deal is close, if not already underway. This will give Iran access to about $6 billion in frozen assets. This will lead to more Iranian oil in the market.