Yesterday, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC met to assess the oil market and the impact of the OPEC+ production restraint. The committee commended the “agile and flexible approach” of the OPEC+ countries, but made no specific recommendations beyond continuing to monitor the oil market until the next meeting in June. That JMMC meeting will take place just before the full Ministerial meeting at which the member states will decide whether to continue the current production restraint. The JMMC communique pointed out “critical uncertainties” such as trade negotiations, monetary policy and geopolitical challenges. Among those geopolitical challenges are rising tensions between Iran and the U.S. since the non-renewal of sanctions waivers early this month. The possibility that the two countries could stumble into direct military conflict is rising.