After falling for the second straight year to 2.6 million b/d in 2018, North Sea crude and condensate production will plateau in 2019 before rising sharply in 2020 as a result of the start-up of Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup mega-project. Led by Norway, North Sea output will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 70,000 b/d from 2020 to 2023, when it will reach 2.9 million b/d.
Africa’s refinery throughput will grow by only 60,000 b/d this year to 2.2 million b/d and will remain flat next year. With crude production growth set to outstrip throughput, Africa’s exportable crude surplus will rise to 5.2 million b/d in 2019.
The latest talks over the RFS resulted in the announcement that the Trump administration will allow E15 gasoline to be sold year-round. Although policy details remain unclear, this development will move the RIN market into surplus, reduce D6 RIN prices, increase blending of ethanol into the gasoline pool at the expense of petroleum based components, and temper the recent crude-led rise in gasoline prices.
Wall Street Journal–December 13, 2017
Officials urge international offering for Aramco, rather than selling a stake to Beijing, which they fear would boost its standing in Middle East
Hydrocarbon Engineering–November 9, 2017
Russian refiners will increase production of transport fuels by 110 000 bpd next year, according to ESAI Energy’s recently published ‘CIS Watch One-Year Outlook.’
Oil & Gas Journal–October 25, 2017
ESAI Energy LLC forecasts leaner and smaller Canadian oil sands projects in the coming years as producers face high costs in a recovering oil-price environment.
Midland Reporter-Telegram August 28, 2017
“Strong growth from the U.S. and Canada will make OPEC’s task difficult,” Elisabeth Murphy, analyst with ESAI.
Ship & Bunker August 18, 2017
ESAI Energy Analyst, Chris Cote says the new IMO regulation “will turn the bunker fuel oil market on its head in 2020.”
World Oil August 16, 2017
ESAI Energy Analyst, Ian Page points out that “alternative vehicles will not have a major impact on global gasoline demand until after 2022.”
Oil & Gas Journal August 14, 2017
In its recent Five-Year Outlook, ESAI Energy points out that the call on Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries crude will remain under tremendous pressure over the next 5 years.
Oil & Gas Journal July 19, 2017
“Although we see that the USGC surplus could rise to 2 million b/d next year, its disposition is unclear,” said Elisabeth Murphy, an ESAI Energy analyst. “Lower prices will adversely impact the rate of growth coming from shale production.”
Oil & Gas Journal June 21, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy of ESAI said, “Although the pace of growth is expected to slow next year, US shale production is forecast to be about 500,000 b/d higher in 2018 than 2017, still very impressive growth.”
World Pipelines May 24, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy, points out that “until oil prices get closer to US$60 producers will continue to target the Bakken core where well performance is very high.
Bloomberg May 18, 2017
“The producers will have to work hard this summer to temper the surplus in the first quarter,” Sarah Emerson, managing director of ESAI Energy in Wakefield, Massachusetts, said …
The decision by Saudi Arabia, Russia and ostensibly the rest of OPEC to extend the production cut through the first quarter of 2018 is not a surprise, except for the addition of the first quarter of 2018. Extending through early 2018 signals that the producers understand the magnitude of the challenge. Whether they rise to the challenge depends on their success this summer. OPEC needs to do as much as possible now to temper the surplus coming in the first quarter.