Subsidy reform in Egypt means that despite a growing economy, higher prices will leave gasoline demand flat this year, at 170,000 b/d. With no other large engine of growth in the region, North Africa’s total gasoline demand will also remain flat this year, at 400,000 b/d. Meanwhile, a modest increase in supply means the region’s import requirement will shrink slightly to 210,000 b/d.
Libya will not solve its own problems in 2017. And although international actors, including the US and Russia, have military presence in the country, their influence will not the tip scales toward national resolution or in favor of any faction. Continued violence and the undermining of the National Oil Company will keep oil production fluctuating between 400,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d for the foreseeable future.