Libya’s crude production should remain near 1 million b/d for the next several months. The likelihood of production-disrupting violence, however, will increase significantly in the run-up to the December 2018 election. Production could fall by up to 200,000 b/d as a result. Europe’s refiners would look elsewhere for light sweet crude, including the U.S.
Europe has at least 1.2 million b/d of refining capacity that are at greater risk from new IMO specifications. These refineries’ high yields of heavy fuel oil, smaller and less-efficient size, and lack of plans to invest in upgrading make them vulnerable to weaker demand for heavy fuel oil and widening spreads once IMO changes take effect. Other bigger refineries are investing to adapt to market changes and remain viable.
Wall Street Journal–December 13, 2017
Officials urge international offering for Aramco, rather than selling a stake to Beijing, which they fear would boost its standing in Middle East
Hydrocarbon Engineering–November 9, 2017
Russian refiners will increase production of transport fuels by 110 000 bpd next year, according to ESAI Energy’s recently published ‘CIS Watch One-Year Outlook.’
Oil & Gas Journal–October 25, 2017
ESAI Energy LLC forecasts leaner and smaller Canadian oil sands projects in the coming years as producers face high costs in a recovering oil-price environment.
Midland Reporter-Telegram August 28, 2017
“Strong growth from the U.S. and Canada will make OPEC’s task difficult,” Elisabeth Murphy, analyst with ESAI.
Ship & Bunker August 18, 2017
ESAI Energy Analyst, Chris Cote says the new IMO regulation “will turn the bunker fuel oil market on its head in 2020.”
World Oil August 16, 2017
ESAI Energy Analyst, Ian Page points out that “alternative vehicles will not have a major impact on global gasoline demand until after 2022.”
Oil & Gas Journal August 14, 2017
In its recent Five-Year Outlook, ESAI Energy points out that the call on Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries crude will remain under tremendous pressure over the next 5 years.
Oil & Gas Journal July 19, 2017
“Although we see that the USGC surplus could rise to 2 million b/d next year, its disposition is unclear,” said Elisabeth Murphy, an ESAI Energy analyst. “Lower prices will adversely impact the rate of growth coming from shale production.”
Oil & Gas Journal June 21, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy of ESAI said, “Although the pace of growth is expected to slow next year, US shale production is forecast to be about 500,000 b/d higher in 2018 than 2017, still very impressive growth.”
World Pipelines May 24, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy, points out that “until oil prices get closer to US$60 producers will continue to target the Bakken core where well performance is very high.
Bloomberg May 18, 2017
“The producers will have to work hard this summer to temper the surplus in the first quarter,” Sarah Emerson, managing director of ESAI Energy in Wakefield, Massachusetts, said …
The decision by Saudi Arabia, Russia and ostensibly the rest of OPEC to extend the production cut through the first quarter of 2018 is not a surprise, except for the addition of the first quarter of 2018. Extending through early 2018 signals that the producers understand the magnitude of the challenge. Whether they rise to the challenge depends on their success this summer. OPEC needs to do as much as possible now to temper the surplus coming in the first quarter.
World Oil: April 25, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy, explains, “the price discount at Midland will ease as more crude makes its way to the U.S. Gulf Coast.