The deal with OPEC has lifted oil prices, liquidated a global oil glut, and paid dividends in the form of improved relations with Saudi Arabia, boosting Russia’s real and perceived influence in the Middle East.
Hydrocarbon Engineering–November 9, 2017
Russian refiners will increase production of transport fuels by 110 000 bpd next year, according to ESAI Energy’s recently published ‘CIS Watch One-Year Outlook.’
Oil & Gas Journal–October 25, 2017
ESAI Energy LLC forecasts leaner and smaller Canadian oil sands projects in the coming years as producers face high costs in a recovering oil-price environment.
Midland Reporter-Telegram August 28, 2017
“Strong growth from the U.S. and Canada will make OPEC’s task difficult,” Elisabeth Murphy, analyst with ESAI.
Ship & Bunker August 18, 2017
ESAI Energy Analyst, Chris Cote says the new IMO regulation “will turn the bunker fuel oil market on its head in 2020.”
World Oil August 16, 2017
ESAI Energy Analyst, Ian Page points out that “alternative vehicles will not have a major impact on global gasoline demand until after 2022.”
Oil & Gas Journal August 14, 2017
In its recent Five-Year Outlook, ESAI Energy points out that the call on Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries crude will remain under tremendous pressure over the next 5 years.
Oil & Gas Journal July 19, 2017
“Although we see that the USGC surplus could rise to 2 million b/d next year, its disposition is unclear,” said Elisabeth Murphy, an ESAI Energy analyst. “Lower prices will adversely impact the rate of growth coming from shale production.”
Oil & Gas Journal June 21, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy of ESAI said, “Although the pace of growth is expected to slow next year, US shale production is forecast to be about 500,000 b/d higher in 2018 than 2017, still very impressive growth.”
This is more than a diplomatic row among GCC members. Perhaps emboldened by President Trump’s visit, Saudi Arabia and its allies have declared if you are with Iran (or specific radical Sunni groups), you are against us. This effort to delineate sides in the region cannot be easily reversed without substantial outside pressure. Expect a geopolitical premium to creep into energy prices as this dispute continues.
OPEC is very much alive, and has just extended its production restraint through the rest of 2017 and the
first quarter of 2018, improving the outlook for 2017 and maybe even 2018.
World Pipelines May 24, 2017
Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy, points out that “until oil prices get closer to US$60 producers will continue to target the Bakken core where well performance is very high.
Notwithstanding the pageantry of the U.S. President visiting Saudi Arabia and the enthusiasm of young Iranians hailing their moderate President’s reelection, little changed in terms of the region’s political stability, the battle with ISIS or oil policy this weekend. The clearest signal from the weekend was the public and forceful assertion that the U.S. has allied itself with the Saudis versus Iran, which can only have stoked the age-old rivalry. This should not impact OPEC dealings this week as Iran’s production is near a top, but it is likely to have repercussions down the road when (and if) Iran’s productive capacity rises.
Bloomberg May 18, 2017
“The producers will have to work hard this summer to temper the surplus in the first quarter,” Sarah Emerson, managing director of ESAI Energy in Wakefield, Massachusetts, said …
The decision by Saudi Arabia, Russia and ostensibly the rest of OPEC to extend the production cut through the first quarter of 2018 is not a surprise, except for the addition of the first quarter of 2018. Extending through early 2018 signals that the producers understand the magnitude of the challenge. Whether they rise to the challenge depends on their success this summer. OPEC needs to do as much as possible now to temper the surplus coming in the first quarter.