Proposed 2018 RFS volume targets were announced yesterday. With only a small reduction in target volumes for advanced biofuels, ESAI Energy continues to project higher D6 RIN prices later in 2017 and in 2018. Without increased sales of higher ethanol blends, obligated parties will need to turn to banked RINs to satisfy obligations.
As ESAI Energy first discussed in early April, 2018 Renewable Fuel Standard targets would be bullish for RIN prices in 2017. Expectations that mandated volumes in 2018 will remain near 2017 levels and current market fundamentals point to a shortfall in D6 RINs and higher prices by the end of the year.